E-commerce Growth: Slower but Hefty

Even as growth slowed from 2020’s pandemic-fueled explosion in activity, the global e-commerce market still grew a robust 19.9% in 2021, according to Transport Intelligence (Ti).

Indications are growth will slow but remain hefty. Ti’s market sizing and forecast data and analysis shows a projected annual growth rate of 11.8% in the global e-commerce logistics market for 2021 through 2026. North America, in particular, will enjoy rapid growth, surpassing Asia Pacific by 2026 as the largest e-commerce logistics market in the world, Ti says. The United States, Canada, and Mexico are all expected to see growth above the global average, while the more mature Chinese and South Korean markets are expected to see slowing growth.

“In 2021, e-commerce has been a key growth sector for logistics and we’ve seen some spectacular revenue growth from individual service providers,” says Michael Clover, head of commercial development for Ti. “Overall growth has slowed since 2020, leveling off as the extraordinary conditions for e-commerce growth brought about by the pandemic unwind, but is still above pre-pandemic levels.

“The forecast out to 2026 portrays a maturing market where online retail penetration levels are sustained in the most mature markets between 25 and 30% and other markets move up to this level,” he adds.

Of note, the cross-border e-commerce logistics market has a projected compound annual growth rate of 10.7% from 2021 to 2026. Driving the growth are consumers who increasingly use e-commerce to search outside their country for particular luxury goods unavailable at home. Still, compliance with tax and customs regimes could hinder cross-border e-commerce market growth from fully reaching its potential.